The General Problem
Play this video as you explore the map and read below to know more!
A Brief History
After World War II, Japan's total population stood at about 72.5 million after an approximate 2.3 million Imperial
Japanese military personnel were killed since the beginning of the invasion in 1931. Japan's female population between the ages of 20-40 vastly
outnumbered its male counterparts, a clear reflection of the war's aftermath. As of 2019 however, its population increased
to over 125 million, making Japan the 11th largest country in the world.
What Caused This Population Boom?
Ironically, the event that caused the single largest loss of human life is also the same event that caused the largest spike in populations for countries
in the years following it. Millions of young men returning to Japan after years of fighting set the stage for the country's first post-war baby boom. The decade
following would lead to the generation of a Total Fertility Rate of 4.54, more than double the necessary 2.1 for a country's population to grow.
A high TFR is a strong indicator for future economic growth due to the larger number of people available to increase a country's productivity. Evidence of this
exists in Japan in the form of the plethora of renowned brands the world has become so familiar with such as Toyota, Sony, and Nintendo. This period in Japanese History
is referred to as the Post-War Economic Miracle. Japan had successfully achieved an immense economy of both scale and scope for itself to thrive off of. By 1960, Japan
had established itself as the world's 2nd largest economy next to the US.
Signs of Decline
These economies of scale/scope do come with a price, which is that they must maintain a workforce size large enough to sustain itself. Unfortunately for
Japan, in 1957 the country saw its TFR began to slowly decline. The ramifacations of this however are hard to foresee or prepare for in the moment since it takes
generations for results to manifest.
In tandem with this is another issue that at first may sound like a net positive, which is the Japanese culture's hyper-focus on discipline
and hard work. A clearly positive result of this strong work-drive is the quality of worker that Japanese schools output on paper, which are employees that expect
long hours and little vacation time. The underlying problem with this however is that the culture was actively priming its young workers to neglect thoughts of anything that
may intrude on work life, which includes the idea of starting a family.
The pivotal moment that revealed the inherent flaw in Japan's culture occurred in the early 1990's as the Japanese stock market crashed, which just happened to occur
around the same time as when China truly began opening itself up for foreign investment. From this point forward, China effectively replaced Japan as the world's premiere
export-manufacturer, and the Japanese economy arguably has not recovered since.
Contemporary Ramifications
Japan's population debacle came to a head in 2010 when it was revealed that for the first time since World War II, Japan's total population size decreased from its peak of about 128.5 million.
When taking into account both Japan's rapidly aging population and it's already middling economy, government officials are now actively trying to develop methods to reignite, or
at the very least sustain, its TFR. The failure to do so earlier has already illustrated itself via rapidly rising social security costs, meaning that a smaller population of Japan's
youth are now responsible for sustaining the financial security for a larger and older generation. In other words, they will need to pay much higher taxes. As taxation increases in a country,
civil distrust in their government typically rises in correlation, which can be a recipe for extreme ideas to appear normal.
The video below explains how one ideology appears to be on the rise in the country:
Potential Solutions
When it comes to solving the issue of a falling birth rate, there are only 2 primary methods of solving or at least mitigating its effects:
1. Encourage Domestic Citizens to Start Families
The first is to simply try to actively encourage
the population to reproduce. Japan has attempted in doing so by expanding family and child-care policies such as requiring certain companies to offer daycare services in an attempt to create a
lessen the financial risks of starting a family. Another method they've implemented is a program to allow parents to have 12 months of leave if they meet certain work requirements.
2. Ease Immigration Policies
The second method of reigniting a country's TFR is to simply import new youth members. Allowing citizens from countries with higher
birth rates to work and live within domestic borders can help provide a temporary boost to the TFR. The inherent risk to this method however is the domestic population's apprehensive feelings about
losing their sense of importance as well as losing what defines their nationality and culture. In Japan's case, they have historically had a strong resistance to mass migration, and in some cases
a resistance based in xenophobia. The Japanese government has however increased their allowance of foreign workers and migration in recent years, despite the worry of some members of the public.
In Review
Ultimately, Japan is facing a potential wave of problems if they don't resolve this issue soon. It should also be something all contemporary 1st world nations should be using as a case study, since their birth rates are projected to diminish as well. If these economies all begin to stumble due to an old populace, the world may experience a complete overhaul in its power-structure.
